The UNP held its 52nd annual convention on December 16, just two days after their budget debacle. As could be expected, the convention was hardly an exuberant affair, coming so soon after yet another ‘defeat’. Normally, the budget is supposed to be yet another bill passed in parliament and not a contest between the government and the opposition. But thanks to the `topple the government’ effort and the psy-ops launched by the UNP, it became an election-like contest and even the results were announced in election style. "Government wins by a majority of 47 votes!" screamed the headlines not only of the state owned newspapers, but privately-owned newspapers like the Irida Lakbima and surprisingly, even the pro-UNP Sunday Leader. At elections, the majority is counted as the difference between what the winner and the loser get, regardless of how many voters had stayed away from the polling booth. When the village level UNPer heard the result being announced on the Dec. 14, he took it like another election defeat, mumbling imprecations at their inept leadership.
In the doldrums
To the UNPer at the ground level, the bottom line was this – the UNP lost only by a few votes at the second reading in November, but lost by a thumping 47 votes at the third reading. Hence the margin of defeat had increased exponentially. If attendance was unusually poor at the UNP annual convention, that was hardly surprising. What normally happens when the UNP has its party convention is that the electoral organizers visit all the polling both divisions in their electorate and inform the ground level activists that he will be organizing buses to transport people to the convention. The activists in the area then tell the electoral organizer how many people will be joining. All those who will be making the trip usually assemble at the crack of dawn at the electoral organizer’s house and after breakfast, board the buses which would have been parked there overnight.. The buses, draped in green flags and posters of the organizer, would make it a point to go to the nearest town and the party would shout slogans and light crackers to put on a show of strength at the local level, before the journey to the convention venue begins.
But this time, the flag waving and the slogan shouting was conspicuous by its absence in most areas. People did not have the sprit to do what they normally do. We reported in this column that if the budget vote is won by the government, the UNP would place the blame on the UNP defectors who joined the government, and primarily on Karu Jayasuriya who represents the Gampaha district and is the leader of the UNP reformist group. But things did not work out that way. The UNP leadership probably thought it inexpedient to remind the rank and file these days about ‘dissidents’ or ‘reformists’ because that would remind them of what caused the dissent and what the cry for reforms was about! Hence the UNP has been directing most of their flak at the JVP and not at their own dissidents.
The UNP itself is to blame for its predicament by whipping up expectations among their rank and file in the run up to the budget. When the promised change of government failed to materialize, the average UNPer took it as another defeat. During the past thirteen years, defeat has become second nature to the UNP rank and file, and like air raid drill during wartime, everybody has developed reflexes to deal with defeat – avoid public places, stop discussing politics and smilingly ignore jibes directed at them by opponents. This is despite the fact that the UNP has actually improved its position in parliament with the crossover of four SLMC parliamentarians and Anura Bandaranaike. And the government got only 114 votes which means they won only by a majority of two, the two votes belonging to Ven Uduwe Dhammaloka and JVP MP Nandana Gunatillke, who are not really in the government. Moreover, the CWC, which voted with the government can hardly be considered a steady ally. This is a government living on borrowed time.
Supplicants, not activists
Given all these factors, the government is in a precarious position indeed, and the UNP should in fact be celebrating. But they are in mourning instead. One major problem that the UNP faces is that the rank and file have got used to the idea that the party leadership will deliver power to them by various smart schemes. Because of the UNP’s inability to inspire the masses and win the correct way on a wave of public support, the party is dependent on horse deals to see them through. When a horse deal falls through, that is equivalent to an electoral defeat. We saw much the same thing during the last election that the UNP fought – the presidential election of 2005. Because the UNP did not have enough votes to win in the south even with the help of the CWC and the SLMC, they were looking to the north to get what they lacked in the south. When Prabhakaran snubbed them, everything fell through. The average UNPer is now no longer an activist, who goes out among the people and builds up support for the party. He is a supplicant waiting with joined palms at the offices of party big shots, waiting for power to be delivered to them from above.
In the horse dealing during the budget debate, the UNP had counted the JVP’s votes as well in their calculations, without having arrived at any kind of an understanding with them. When the JVP snubbed the UNP, they were once again ‘defeated’. As we wrote in this column last week, it’s a lucky thing the UNP was not able to topple the government with their harebrained schemes because there is no guarantee that the UNP will be able to get the highest number of seats even in the three cornered fight with the JVP contesting separately. As after every defeat, the blame game was in full swing last week with the UNP accusing the JVP of having betrayed and deceived the people by voting against the budget at the second reading and abstaining during the third reading. The JVP says the government won not because the JVP abstained but because there were 26 UNP parliamentarians serving in the government.
In addition to this blame game that was being played out between he JVP and the UNP, there were rumblings within the UNP as well. Because the budget fiasco was just a horse deal that fell through, it may not snowball into a leadership challenge. But discontent there certainly was, even among the rank and file present at the party convention last week. The task of inviting the leader to speak had been entrusted to Gayantha Karunatilleke who fell over himself in showering praise upon Wickremesinghe for nearly half an hour, before inviting him to speak. Karunatilleke spoke about Wickremesinghe’s career in school, university and in politics. He described Wickremesinghe in glowing terms as one of the most capable leaders in the world and spoke about his about his monumental patience ‘iwaseema’. Coming as it did, after the latest power grabbing fiasco of the party, everybody thought such excessive praise was in poor taste. There had been only scattered applause for what Karunatilleke said. Even when Karunatilleke tried to work things up by gradually getting more and more emotional until he was virtually shrieking the leader’s praise into the microphone, the audience failed to respond.
It was Sajith Premadasa who got the most amount of applause and cheers at the UNP convention, followed by S.B.Dissanayake. Wickremesinghe got a very tepid response from the crowd and many had left their seats before his speech. It would have been interesting to see how the crowd would have reacted to Mangala Samaraweera, the UNP’s new number two. Samaraweera could not make an appearance at the UNP’s annual convention because he was still officially a member of the SLFP, and his presence at a members only gathering may have been prejudicial to him legally.
Muwanpelessa vs Cinnamon Gardens
In his speech, Sajith Premadasa lashed out at the party establishment, saying that the next time the UNP was in power, those who wear the crown should be cloth and banian and sarong and shirt wearing ordinary folk and that the party will have to ensure that those who benefit from their rule will be people from Muwanpelessa and not those from Cinnamon Gardens. The crowd had erupted in wild cheers at this. Sajith Premadasa is not the type to rock the boat by making a leadership challenge, but from time to time, he will speak his mind. The last time the UNP was the power, on 2001, Sajith was given only a deputy minister’s portfolio even though he won the Hambantota district for the UNP. His peers like Johnston Fernando, Vajira Abeywardene and Kabir Hashim were made non-cabinet ministers. Despite having been thus treated, perhaps for being too independent minded, Sajith has stuck to his course which is why a mere former deputy minister now gets more applause than anybody else in the party barring perhaps S.B.Dissanayake.
As we mentioned earlier, .Dissanayke was another individual who got a rousing welcome at the UNP convention, and the UNP leadership thought it fit to cut him down to size. After SB’s speech, the person scheduled to speak was Johnston Fernando who directed several jibes at SB, saying that even those who were at the forefront of attacking party leader Wickremesinghe and terrorized the party rank and file during the Chandrika Kumaratunga regime, were now at Wickremesinghe’s feet. Fernando had said that the same applied to Mangala Samaraweera and Sripathy Sooriyarachchi as well. This was a barely disguised attempt to remind the crowd that S.B.Dissanayake whom they were now cheering even in preference to their own leader, was once the scourge of the UNP.
By reminding the UNP rank and file of the past, the attempt was to dampen their pro-SB fervour. Wickremesinghe probably fears another leadership challenge could be brewing and this could be a way of trying to head it off. SB had always spoken last at UNP meetings because the crowds come to listen to him and will not leave until he had spoken. And the way to retain the crowd was to leave the best for the last. Even at the previous annual convention held in Kandy, SB spoke last. But this time he was not allowed to speak last, because those who had come for the convention would have gone back with whatever SB told them in their minds. Johnston Fernando did not spare even Sajith, even though there really is nothing that one can say against him.
Sajith was never in any other political party and no one can say that he came in from outside. Even within the UNP, he was not active in politics when his father was the president and the leader of the UNP – so no one can say that he is the mollycoddled son of a former party leader. Nor has Sajith been associated with any attempts to remove Wickremesinghe. Fernando referred to the point raised by Sajith about crowning cloth and banian wearing people, and had said that the country is now being ruled by someone wearing the ‘redda’ and ‘baniyama’ and just see what he is doing to the country! The UNP convention thus ended with Fernando having ridiculed both the two most popular individuals in the UNP.
Deals that failed
We haven’t heard the last of the budget drama yet. Minister Mahindananda Aluthgamage has come up with the story that W.B.Ekanayake and Chandrasiri Sooriyarachchi had been offered 25 million each to defect to the opposition, and when Jeyaraj Fernandopulle had heared about this, he had taken the two UNP dissidents to a hotel in Colombo where they had stayed the night before the budget vote. This kind of thing has become quite normal for Sooriyarachchi who readers will remember, was nearly abducted on the night before the 18 UNP dissidents led by Karu Jayasuriya were sworn in s ministers earlier this year.
Several UNP parliamentarians had been in charge of the crossover drama and Sagala Ratnayake had been one of them. Wickremesinghe had got Ratnayake involved in the horse dealing operation to take his mind off a simmering dispute that Ratnayake was having with Justin Galappaththy the Matara district leader. All those involved in the operation had been keeping things close to their chest and when other UNP parliamentarians had asked what was going on, the stock answer would be, ‘we can’t tell you yet’. Even Sripathy Sooriyarachchy had been playing up the drama. One day he was standing on the corridor in parliament and when a fellow MP asked him what he was doing there, he said that he was waiting for an MP who was due to crossover!
The person who had apparently put Anura Bandaranaike in trouble was Mangala Samaraweera who had tried to use Bandaranaike as a kind of political decoy, to try and get Thondaman to defect. AB had been assured that Thondaman would defect if he crossed over. Anura did cross the floor and he waited for Thondaman to do the same, but nothing happened. When nothing happened, Anura simply left parliament without waiting for the vote. Thus it turned out that Anura defected to the opposition but did not vote against the budget because he was not in parliament to vote.
Even though this was just a budget vote and not an election, its effect has been almost as far reaching as an election. The fate of two key political figures hangs in the balance. Where Anura is concerned, will this mark the end of the Bandaranaike presence in politics? If so, things would have come full circle. S.W.R.D.Bandaranaike began the Bandaranaike saga by crossing from the UNP into the opposition and his son would have ended it by crossing over from the party his father founded, back into the UNP fold.
The fate of Rauff Hakeem also hangs in the balance. After the death of M.H.M.Ashraff the SLMC has been slowly disintegrating. After president Rajapakse won the presidential election in 2005, Hakeem was forced to join the PA government because his MPs had begun defecting to the government. The question that arises is whether the same problem will not best him now that he is outside the government again. Minority parties cannot last for long without access to patronage, which is why Thondaman did not make a move until he was sure that he would not find himself outside the government while Chandrasekeran remains within and has access to all the patronage.
Hakeem made the mistake of crossing the floor leaving some of his colleagues in the government to use the patronage they can access to consolidate themselves. Each minority leader has a rival within the community, and his or her actions will be determined to a greater or lesser extent by what the rival is doing. If the minority leader makes a mistake, that results in his rival getting the upper hand. Such a situation will be as detrimental to the minority leader as it is to a Sinhala leader who loses out to a rival. In this context, a situation will have to arise where minority leaders decide to abandon the government en bloc, because of the extreme erosion of governmental authority such as what happened in 2001.
Taking the JVP for granted
The JVP politburo met on Dec. 13 to map out their strategy for the budget vote the next day. Somawansa Amarasinghe said that the present situation was not like on November 19 (when the second reading vote was taken) and that this time, there were two opponents to defeat – the wrong track of the government and the conspiracies launched by the UNP. He suggested that the JVP abstain from voting at the third reading. The politburo had unanimously endorsed that decision. The politburo then summoned the JVP parliamentary group to their headquarters at 8.30am on the Dec. 14 to inform them of the decision to abstain from voting. All JVP MPs thus knew what the decision of the party was, but they did not reveal their hand until the voting began. There were reports to the effect that there had been an internal split within the JVP on this question of abstaining from voting. There certainly would be internal conflicts within the JVP because they are now at the political crossroads, but on the question of not doing anything that would reduce their numbers in parliament, there seems to be unanimity among the JVP parliamentarians.
Besides, no one in the JVP would relish the idea of committing political suicide on behalf of the UNP. If there was a sharp split in the JVP on this issue, then the disgruntled faction would have leaked the news of their decision to abstain to the UNP. In the run up to the 2005 presidential election, the TNA MPs knew three weeks in advance that the LTTE would be boycotting the election. Even though this was supposed to be kept a secret, TNA MPs like Raviraj who had opposed the LTTE decision to boycott the elections, had been dropping hints whenever they met their UNP friends, and if not for the blindness of the UNP leadership, they would have known well in advance that they were not going to get any help from the LTTE.
As for Anura Bandaranaike, who crossed the floor in the expectation that the JVP would oppose the budget, what happened to him was a replay of what happened during the presidential election of December 1988. In the year 1988, when the JVP’s second insurrection was in full swing, the SLFP expected the JVP to support their candidate, Mrs Sirima Bandaranaike. While on the campaign trail, someone had told Anura Bandarnaike over lunch at the Bamunusinghe walauwa in the Hambantota district that it would be disadvantageous for the JVP to allow a change of government to take place at this juncture because it would take the wind out of their sails and therefore, the JVP is most likely to boycott the election, thus favouring the UNP candidate, R.Premadasa. Anura Bandaranike had laughed it off saying "What nonsense! The JVP is with us!" Needless to say, the SLFP lost that election because the JVP refused to be what the SLFP expected them to be.
The JVP politburo for its part, met last Wedneday and expressed satisfaction at the result produced by their abstaining from the budget vote. Somawansa Amarasinghe said that the government which got 119 votes at the second reading, has now got only 114 votes which means that they will not be able to do as they please and on the other hand, the UNP which had inflated expectations, had now come crashing to the ground and once again proven their incompetence to the world. K.D.Lal Kantha said that Mangala Samaraweera had said that the decision to abstain from voting was a decision of Wimal Weerawansa and that such statements show how bankrupt they are. Amarasinghe stated that anybody who has any understanding of the JVP will not make such statements.
The interesting point is that not so long ago, Samaraweera was thought to be very close to the JVP and he was considered the go between in the marriage between the PA and the JVP at the 2005 presidential elections. Today, the JVP itself states that Samaraweera had no understanding of the JVP – which is true because at the time he split from the SLFP, he actually expected the JVP to support his line and to sink or swim with him. He would have been bitterly disappointed when the JVP showed no sign of wanting to cast their lot with him. Speaking at Wednesday’s politburo meeting, Vijtha Herath stated that Ranil had been going around the country saying that it was the JVP that was helping the government to survive. To this Tilvin Silva said that the JVP need not take any notice of what Ranil Wickremesinghe says, and that the people of this country approve of what the JVP did.
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